Whom You Know: S&P Global Mobility predicts strong monthly SAAR for October

Tuesday, November 1, 2022

S&P Global Mobility predicts strong monthly SAAR for October

On projected volume of approximately 1.139 million units, U.S. auto sales in October will reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 14.7 million units, according to S&P Global Mobility estimates. While this would mark the strongest monthly SAAR level in eight months, the underlying dynamics of the market remain in flux.

S&P Global Mobility LV Sales Trailing 10.24.22

S&P Global Mobility US BEV Sales Share October 10.24.22

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales

Oct 22 (Est)

Sep 22

Oct 21

Total Light Vehicle

Units, NSA

1,138,900

1,112,245

1,051,015

In millions, SAAR

14.7

13.5

13.2

Light Truck

In millions, SAAR

11.6

10.6

10.5

Passenger Car

In millions, SAAR

3.1

2.9

2.7

Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

"Pockets of vehicle inventory levels continue to improve more quickly than expected from extraordinarily low levels and bring welcome news on the supply side of the equation. However, auto consumers are likely feeling the pressure of current economic headwinds," according to Chris Hopson, Principal Analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "While we continue to point to inventory levels as a major factor in stemming immediate-term momentum in auto sales levels, the deteriorating economic conditions are becoming more prevalent."

Hindered by higher interest rate settings and lower levels of jobs growth than previously anticipated, consumers are expected to retrench - thereby becoming a major input factor to auto demand levels over the next 12-18 months. In its October 2022 US Economics update, S&P Global Market Intelligence team has revised downward its projection of real GDP growth in 2023 from 0.9% to -0.5%. The base forecast now includes a mild recession starting in the fourth quarter of this year, with an anemic recovery taking hold in the third quarter of next year.

If there's a silver lining, the potential for faster new-vehicle inventory growth should allow for downward pressure on vehicle pricing and provide some clearance for auto consumers willing to test the market in 2023.

About S&P Global Mobility

At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.

S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.

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